On October 31, it was reported that news of Indonesia's policy to ban mining had disturbed the nickel market since this week. On Monday night, it was reported that bahlil lahadalia, chairman of Indonesia's investment coordination agency, said that Indonesia's nickel industry agreed on Monday to immediately stop nickel ore exports. However, the authenticity of the information about the early prohibition of mining has yet to be confirmed, which caused the market to fluctuate violently. That night, LUNI nickel once pulled up and recovered 17000 US dollars / ton, but then reversed and plummeted.           

On Wednesday, the immediate effect of the ban was officially falsified. Airlangga hartarto, Indonesia's minister for economic coordination, said the deadline for the ban to take effect on January 1 remained. Arifin tasrif, Indonesia's minister of energy and mineral resources, said that the official export ban is still scheduled to be implemented in January 2020, and the government will not issue any new export proposals until the ban is issued in January next year.            Although Indonesia said it would implement the ban as planned, this week it began a strict investigation of the illegal export of nickel mines, and will stop issuing export quota recommendations during the investigation. Luhutpandjaitan, Indonesia's coordinating Minister for maritime transport and mining, said authorities were investigating manipulation and other illegal practices that led to the export of large-scale high-grade nickel ore. Exports are likely to recover after a week or two of evaluation.           

In response, Guoxin futures nonferrous metals team believes that from the latest statement of the Indonesian government, the official attitude towards the early prohibition of nickel ore export is vague, and there is no one size fits all early prohibition in the policy, which eases the panic of the international market about Indonesia's early prohibition policy once again. At the same time, the illegal export of Indonesia's high-grade nickel ore before the end of the year is restricted through strict legal and compliance inspection, which is expected to affect only for a period of time. The nickel ore quota that has been issued in the next two months still has the export capacity. Whether the large-scale rush shipment can be reproduced at the end of the year is an important factor affecting the nickel ore price in the future.           

Indonesia's ban on mining policy can be said to be the primary factor influencing the price fluctuation of nickel market this year. According to the mining regulations of 2017, Indonesia originally planned to suspend the export of raw ore on January 12, 2022. However, on August 30 this year, Indonesian officials decided to speed up the implementation of the export ban on nickel ores, which was originally scheduled to be implemented in 2022, and put into effect in January 2020.           

"China has almost undertaken all nickel ores exported from Indonesia, and the ban on mining in Indonesia has a great impact on market sentiment." Market participants said that due to China's shortage of nickel ore resources, and driven by smelting profits since last year, the new capacity of domestic ferronickel expanded rapidly. Once Indonesia banned ore, it would have a great impact on China's domestic raw material supply. It is estimated that the domestic nickel ore supply gap in 2020 will be around 8 million tons.           

In the view of the non-ferrous team of Jinrui futures, the ore and iron structure in China and Indonesia has been changed due to the ban on mining, and there are nickel iron production capacity and no nickel ore in China, while in Indonesia, there are nickel ore and the capacity of nickel iron is insufficient. However, after the ban, Indonesia's nickel iron production profits will be more substantial, which will stimulate more new projects to be put into operation. At the same time, resources from other regions will fill the gap in Indonesia's supply to China under high ore prices.           

"At present, the short-term contradiction of nickel price is still concentrated in LME's continuous de stocking. Since the national day, LME inventory has continued to flow out and kept a record low. The main reason lies in Qingshan group's centralized purchase of refined nickel for its use in domestic stainless steel plants. The potential reason is still that Indonesia's ban on mining leads to a tight supply of domestic pig iron next year.           

At present, this part of the inventory is not actually consumed by the downstream, but turned into recessive inventory. " The above market participants said that in the long term, the new supply pressure of nickel iron and wet process in the long term is the main contradiction. Due to the current market news, nickel price volatility volatile, the operation of the proposal to wait and see.           

 Guotai Junan Futures Research said that in the short term, the recent internal and external nickel price volatility. In the medium and long term, nickel price is still easy to rise and difficult to fall. In terms of industry, the raw material end of nickel industry chain is better than that in the earlier stage, the price of upstream nickel ore stops falling and stabilizes, and the basic performance of ferronickel is also slightly better. At the same time, in October, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and nickel ore shipments are expected to fall back seasonally. In addition, Indonesia has strictly inspected the illegal export of nickel ore in recent one or two weeks, which to some extent led to a sharp decline in the import stage of China's nickel ore. at present, the downstream stainless steel production is still in a high position, and the demand for raw nickel is still on.           

"In terms of operation, due to the large volatility of nickel price trend in the near future, the margin of safety for long and short is not large, so investors need to operate cautiously. As a variety with more obvious influence on capital and news, investors need to continue to pay attention to the main capital trends at home and abroad and the subsequent policy implementation of the Indonesian government. " Suggestions of Guotai Junan research paper. （From KQ81）